I lost today when three people completed sets on the flop. In a 9-seat game, what are the odds that three people will flop different sets?

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Flopping a set is one of the most consistent ways to win big pots off opponents Getting hit by set over set is one of the single worst situations for poker players.

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Odds of flopping set over set over set, assuming you know that all 3 players have pocket pairs preflop and that each player does not know each.

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You will indeed hit a set on the flop with a pocket pair approximately 1 in 8 times, which would Harry Strand, Have been playing cards for over half a century.

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You will indeed hit a set on the flop with a pocket pair approximately 1 in 8 times, which would Harry Strand, Have been playing cards for over half a century.

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Flopping a set is one of the most consistent ways to win big pots off opponents Getting hit by set over set is one of the single worst situations for poker players.

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To catch a third card of the same denomination on the Flop when holding a pocket pair. Usage: As in "I managed to flop a set.".

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With your case, you're saying set over set happens 9 out of hands. I see you calculated player 2 flopping the set as a condition of player 1 already flopping.

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Find Threads Started by spadebidder. Posts: 7, Re: Probability of set over set Quote: Originally Posted by rich. It seems we should just multiply to get that answer, which gives There's no reason the independent approximation should be much off at all in this case, and I don't think it is as long as we define what we are calculating. Find Threads Started by shorn7.{/INSERTKEYS}{/PARAGRAPH} In order for both players to flop sets, the flop must include one of the two remaining queens, one of the two remaining tens, and one of the other 44 cards in the deck. It was wrong. Originally Posted by rich. Here's the hand fwiw, What were the poker Gods thinkin' when this went down? Originally Posted by BruceZ. Originally Posted by spadebidder. I just can't figure out why mine is so far off. This is extremely unlikely - the probability of a TTQ flop, given the above assumptions, is a very remote 2 in , or about 0. Forum Rules. Talk about "tail" of a distribution. View Public Profile. And 3 times today. Mark Forums Read. It is easy to convert my calculation to exactly 1 pair by changing the coefficients. All times are GMT The time now is AM. All that leaves is the combined probability of the two events. Last edited by spadebidder; at AM. Probability Discussions of probability theory. So once I have the chance some player has a pair, and the chance for another player to have one given the first, what is the correct way to combine those here? Something is wrong with my combined probability then. Send a private message to spadebidder. Anybody know what the probability is or how to calculate it? So that's about where this approximation should fall relatively and I believe it is correct for another pair at the table. Send a private message to shorn7. These are mutual-exclusive approximations but are very accurate. This leave 48 cards unaccounted for. Think I figured the flop at like BB code is On. Find More Posts by rich. Find More Posts by shorn7. I see about hands per hour at 3 tables. Poker is a stupid friggin game. We make no assumptions regarding the distribution of other cards to other players at the table. Man, has this month turned around. OK, so we know the formula for calculating set over set It happened to me today on Stars and have been searching for the probability of that happening. Find Threads Started by rich. Here's a somewhat decent approximation to the Last edited by BruceZ; at PM. I just started saving hand history the other day so i will dig through them to find the hands. Does that make me lucky in a way? I'd say the odds are slim, but Yeah yeah, so he had correct odds to chase his draw, but the friggin board coulda paired prob giving my other opponent quads LOL. Originally Posted by ncceche. Therefore, the probability of set-over-set occurring, given our initial assumption, in This is about 1. Re: Probability of set over set I have just experienced a run of under hands where I flopped and underset 3x to another player at full ring. Smilies are On. But yet it is accurate for another player having a pair. The formula is n! I have just experienced a run of under hands where I flopped and underset 3x to another player at full ring. I recomputed the probability of EXACTLY 2 pairs by changing the adjustment factors in the inclusion-exclusion method, and this gave about 9. Is that just a wrong approach? Originally Posted by aise So I have no idea where I got 9. You could use inclusion exclusion to get the exact answer and it would be within about a tenth of a percent or so. I got it 11 times this week. Computer Technical Help Programming. Set over set over set! Send a private message to rich. The chance that two players at a handed table are dealt pocket pairs of different ranks is about 9. You gave the answer for EXACTLY two players, which doesn't really help us estimate how often two players will see the flop holding pairs, which was my original intent. Re: Probability of set over set Okay. Happened twice to me in hands of six max. I showed you trivially that this probability can be no greater than I see no reason why your independence approximation should be accurate at all. Is there some reason we would not simply multiply the two probabilities together in this case? {PARAGRAPH}{INSERTKEYS}Is this roughly the calculation for flopping set over set in a nine handed game of texas hold em assuming anyone with a pair sees the flop? Is there a shortcut? Also, what is the probability of flopping an under set when set over set is flopped? I know that given I have a pair, the chance another player has one is the number I show. Probability of set over set. Yet i'm some how still up for the week. Equaling, Playing on Full Tilt Rush poker 3 tables at a time. Re: Probability of set over set Happened twice to me in hands of six max. I just did this quickly, and it gives about 8. June graphs thread? User Name. Remember Me? Find More Posts by spadebidder. And I've played about 18 hours this week. Last edited by BruceZ; at AM. I'm confused. Never seen it before. Page 1 of 4. Note: this rules out the possibility of the flop bringing quads vs a full house. Apparently multiplying the chance one player has a pair, times the chance another player at the table has a pair, is wrong in this case but I'm not sure why. Probability of set over set Is this roughly the calculation for flopping set over set in a nine handed game of texas hold em assuming anyone with a pair sees the flop? Was playing donkey limit poker with friends at the AC Showboat around Pres Day '09 and saw set over set over set on the flop I'd have laid bottom set down by the turn, but all three went capped to the river. Thread Tools.